UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Perth, Australia
11 Feb 2023
Lightweight
VS
44%
Mullarkey
56%
Prado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Prado
This is a genuine toss-up — Mullarkey at 44% vs Prado at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prado has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Mullarkey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mullarkey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mullarkey
Prado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+23
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mullarkey
Prado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
48.9
40.0
Performance Avg
42.7
36
Quality of Victory
60
51
Momentum Score
26
Mullarkey
Prado
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
4
Body
2
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance8
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Mullarkey
Prado
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mullarkey
Prado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
90
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Mullarkey
Prado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
26
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Mullarkey
Prado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mullarkey
Prado
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
MullarkeyPrado
Strike Zones
Mullarkey
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedPrado
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mullarkey targets the legs (42% of attacks) — Prado absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Prado targets the head (75% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mullarkey
RND
Prado
0/0R00/0
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Prado · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
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