UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
71%
Rua
29%
Nogueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27 – 14
6'1"76" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 35
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
Striker2-fight slide49 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rua

Rua is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Rua connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rua
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
44+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rua
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
14.4
49.7
Performance Avg
47.0
51
Quality of Victory
48
46
Momentum Score
20
Rua
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
42%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
8 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
16
6
Body
2
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance18
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Rua
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rua
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Rua
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
20
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Rua
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rua
Nogueira
Striking8.2 / 7.6Volume3.1 / 3.6Grappling0.7 / 0.8Wrestling0.5 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Rua
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Rua
Attacking
12HEAD6BODY5LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD6BODY5LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the head (52% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (89% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rua
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0

Rua · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.0L5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W4.5L5.0W5.5L5.4W5.5L1.5L5.0W2.8L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.5W2.7L6.5W4.5W3.5L6.1L1.5L2007-092011-082014-032018-122023-01
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Rua · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul Craig
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Mauricio Rua · Rogerio Nogueira
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