UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
Las Vegas, USA
6 Feb 2016
Heavyweight
VS
51%
Nelson
49%
Rosholt
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 51% vs Rosholt at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Striking split: Nelson throws more volume but Rosholt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson
Rosholt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+75"
49
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Rosholt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
18.0
55.6
Performance Avg
47.5
61
Quality of Victory
29
26
Momentum Score
75
Nelson
Rosholt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.8
40%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
8 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
10
1
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nelson
Rosholt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Rosholt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Nelson
Rosholt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
75
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Nelson
Rosholt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
17%
8
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Rosholt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.2
NelsonRosholt
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedRosholt
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (85% of attacks) — Rosholt absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Rosholt targets the head (83% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Rosholt
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Rosholt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
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W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Rosholt · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Roy NelsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 4.5Decision
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Timothy JohnsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
W · KO · R3
Josh CopelandRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11