UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
24%
Kimball
76%
Reyes
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reyes
Reyes is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kimball has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Kimball throws more volume but Reyes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kimball's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reyes has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kimball
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
72"
Reach
+77"
35+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Kimball
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
55.7
46.0
Performance Avg
56.3
60
Quality of Victory
49
43
Momentum Score
71
Kimball
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
2.5
47%
Strike Accuracy
55%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
13
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
1Clinch0
1Ground13
Kimball
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kimball
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
10
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/23 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Kimball
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Kimball
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
70%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kimball
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
KimballReyes
Strike Zones
Kimball
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedReyes
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kimball targets the head (100% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (81% of attacks) — Kimball absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kimball
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
Kimball · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Kimball · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Darko StosicRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Sub · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5Submission
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · KO · R1
Josh StansburyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
Reyes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R2
Anthony SmithRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06