METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
3%
Na
97%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:28
★ Official Result
Ariane CarnelossiwinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:28
def. Liang Na · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Carnelossi
→
Actual result
Carnelossi wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Carnelossi is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Risk flags
Na's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Carnelossi has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NaCarnelossi
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Na
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'2"
67"+
Reach
61"
30+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Na
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.6
47.7
0.0
Performance Avg
42.6
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
52
Na
Carnelossi
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
6.0
0.0
Style: Volume
0.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
2Clinch1
0Ground5
Na
Carnelossi
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Na
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
62
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Na
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
52
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Na
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Na
Carnelossi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
NaCarnelossi
Strike Zones
Na
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedCarnelossi
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Na targets the head (67% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (88% of attacks) — Na absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Na
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0
Na · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Ivana PetrovicSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
JJ AldrichKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Silvana Gomez JuarezKO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · KO · R2
Ariane CarnelossiKO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
Carnelossi · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ketlen SouzaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10