UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
3%
Na
97%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Carnelossi
Carnelossi is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Carnelossi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Na's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Na
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'2"
67"+
Reach
61"
29+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Na
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.6
54.8
0.0
Performance Avg
47.1
0
Quality of Victory
45
0
Momentum Score
65
Na
Carnelossi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.7
37%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
2Clinch1
0Ground5
Na
Carnelossi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Na
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
84
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Na
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
65
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Na
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Na
Carnelossi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
NaCarnelossi
Strike Zones
Na
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedCarnelossi
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Na targets the head (67% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (88% of attacks) — Na absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Na
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0
Na · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Carnelossi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Na · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Ivana PetrovicRating 4.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
JJ AldrichRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Silvana Gomez JuarezRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · KO · R2
Ariane CarnelossiRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
Carnelossi · Last 5
Upcoming
Ketlen SouzaUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10