UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Ulberg
43%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:27
Carlos
Carlos Ulberg
"Black Jag"
15 – 1
6'4"77" reachOrthodox35 yrs10-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 74
Dominick
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
16 – 5
Striker36 yrsSouthpaw77" reach6'4"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ulberg

This is a genuine toss-up — Ulberg at 57% vs Reyes at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ulberg has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Reyes has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ulberg
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ulberg
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
73.9
55.7
68.2
Performance Avg
56.3
53
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
71
Ulberg
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.5
2.5
58%
Strike Accuracy
55%
7.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
2
Body
1
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Ulberg
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.5
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ulberg
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
10
Moderate
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/16 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Ulberg
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
10-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Ulberg
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
70%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ulberg
Reyes
Striking7.8 / 7.3Volume4.2 / 3.7Grappling1.5 / 1.5Wrestling1.1 / 1.1Submission1.0 / 1.0Pressure7.6 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Ulberg
Strike Zones
Reyes
Ulberg
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY4LEGS5 absorbed
Reyes
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY4LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ulberg targets the head (55% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Ulberg absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ulberg
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ulberg · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W6.1W5.9W5.3W5.1W6.0W6.7W2021-032022-112024-052025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Reyes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.0W6.0W5.1W5.3W5.8W7.3L2.7L3.8L1.9L6.4W6.4W6.2W3.4L5.3W2017-062019-032021-052025-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Ulberg · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Volkan OezdemirRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

Reyes · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R2
Anthony SmithRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06

News & Media

Carlos Ulberg · Dominick Reyes
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