UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Lightweight
VS
76%
Solecki
24%
Wiman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Joe
Joe Solecki
13 – 6
5'9"70" reachOrthodox32 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 49
MW
Matt Wiman
16 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'10"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Solecki

Solecki is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Wiman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Wiman has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Solecki
Wiman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"+
Reach
68"
32+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Solecki
Wiman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
15.4
43.6
Performance Avg
46.3
36
Quality of Victory
40
65
Momentum Score
54
Solecki
Wiman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch1
7Ground3
Solecki
Wiman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Solecki
Wiman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
4
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Solecki
Wiman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
54
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Solecki
Wiman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Solecki
Wiman
Striking1.1 / 3.1Volume5.9 / 5.1Grappling4.6 / 3.6Wrestling3.3 / 2.5Submission4.0 / 3.0Pressure4.5 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Solecki
Strike Zones
Wiman
Solecki
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Wiman
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Solecki targets the head (67% of attacks) — Wiman absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Wiman targets the head (75% of attacks) — Solecki absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Solecki
RND
Wiman
0/0R00/0

Solecki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.9W5.9L4.5W5.2W2.5L7.0L6.8L2019-122021-102023-122025-01
WinLossTrend

Wiman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.2W5.9L5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W4.0L6.2L3.0L2006-052008-122011-072019-062020-12
WinLossTrend

Solecki · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Sub · R2
Carl DeatonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06

Wiman · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · KO · R3
Luis PenaRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Isaac Vallie-FlaggRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · KO · R1
TJ GrantRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01

News & Media

Joe Solecki · Matt Wiman
← Back to fights