METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Sao Paulo, Brazil
22 Sept 2018
Welterweight
VS
75%
Oliveira
25%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:39
★ Official Result
Alex OliveirawinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:39
def. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. · UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Oliveira is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Jr. throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jr. has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraJr.
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
9.8
46.5
Performance Avg
28.3
43
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
27
Oliveira
Jr.
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Oliveira
Jr.
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Oliveira
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
27
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
OliveiraJr.
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedJr.
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the body (50% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.5WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Jr. · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Dwight GrantRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
L · KO · R1
Alex OliveiraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Brad ScottRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05