METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
36%
Kowalkiewicz
64%
Grasso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alexa GrassowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Grasso
→
Actual result
Grasso wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Grasso holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grasso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KowalkiewiczGrasso
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
64"
Reach
+66"
40
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
59.1
35.6
Performance Avg
52.8
28
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
84
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.2
Style: Pressure
4.3
8.1
Style: Volume
6.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
34
8
Body
17
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
21Distance45
3Clinch12
0Ground0
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
KowalkiewiczGrasso
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
57 absorbedGrasso
Attacking
57 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (58% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Grasso targets the head (60% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kowalkiewicz
RND
Grasso
0/0R00/0
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
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Grasso · Last 5
Upcoming
Manon FiorotNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09