UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
36%
Kowalkiewicz
64%
Grasso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
5'3"64" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 33
Alexa
Alexa Grasso
17 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'5"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Grasso

Grasso holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Grasso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Kowalkiewicz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
64"
Reach
+66"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
59.1
35.6
Performance Avg
52.8
28
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
84
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
34
8
Body
17
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
21Distance45
3Clinch12
0Ground0
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R4
Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kowalkiewicz
Grasso
Striking0.9 / 2.4Volume8.1 / 6.6Grappling3.0 / 3.4Wrestling2.1 / 2.4Submission1.1 / 2.2Pressure2.2 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Kowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Grasso
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
14HEAD8BODY2LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD17BODY6LEGS57 absorbed
Grasso
Attacking
34HEAD17BODY6LEGS57 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD8BODY2LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (58% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Grasso targets the head (60% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kowalkiewicz
RND
Grasso
0/0R00/0

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Grasso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5L4.5W3.4L4.5W5.8L4.5W5.5W5.2W5.2W6.7W6.9L7.0L6.0W2016-112019-062022-032025-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Grasso · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Sub · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

News & Media

Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Alexa Grasso
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