UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Arlovski
47%
Ngannou
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:32
Andrei
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34 – 24
6'3"77" reachOrthodox47 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 49
FN
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
17 – 3
Knockout Artist6-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox83" reach6'4"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arlovski

This is a genuine toss-up — Arlovski at 53% vs Ngannou at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ngannou has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Arlovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Arlovski
Ngannou
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+83"
47
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Ngannou
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
43.0
50.5
Performance Avg
70.4
47
Quality of Victory
60
94
Momentum Score
100
Arlovski
Ngannou
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.2
9 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Arlovski
Ngannou
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arlovski
Ngannou
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
8
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
14/20 fights
Arlovski
Ngannou
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Arlovski
Ngannou
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
83%
9
KO / TKO Wins
9
2
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arlovski
Ngannou
Striking5.0 / 9.2Volume5.3 / 2.4Grappling1.9 / 0.9Wrestling1.4 / 0.6Submission0.9 / 0.8Pressure5.0 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.2
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
Arlovski
Strike Zones
Ngannou
Arlovski
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Ngannou
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Ngannou absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ngannou targets the head (100% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arlovski
RND
Ngannou
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Arlovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.0L4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.6L2.1L2.8L1.9L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.9L5.5L5.7L4.5W2.6L5.2W5.1W5.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W2.1L3.1L7.0L6.5L2000-112006-122017-062021-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Ngannou · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.2W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.7W5.0W6.6L6.7L5.9W5.0W5.0W6.1W6.2W6.2W2015-122017-012018-112021-032022-01
WinLossTrend

Arlovski · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
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L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Ngannou · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ciryl GaneRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
W · KO · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Junior Dos SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02

News & Media

Andrei Arlovski · Francis Ngannou
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