UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov
Las Vegas, USA
14 Jan 2023
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Nurmagomedov
46%
Barcelos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:40
Umar
Umar Nurmagomedov
20 – 1
5'8"69" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Raoni
Raoni Barcelos
22 – 5
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 54% vs Barcelos at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Barcelos throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"+
Reach
67"
30+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
51.6
57.2
Performance Avg
49.8
36
Quality of Victory
34
75
Momentum Score
63
Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.1
62%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
6
12
Body
5
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
35Distance10
0Clinch3
1Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/27 fights
Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Barcelos
Striking3.0 / 3.3Volume6.8 / 6.6Grappling3.5 / 3.0Wrestling2.5 / 2.1Submission2.5 / 1.8Pressure5.3 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
20HEAD12BODY4LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD5BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Barcelos
Attacking
6HEAD5BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD12BODY4LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (56% of attacks) — Barcelos absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Barcelos targets the head (46% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Barcelos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.3W5.7W5.8W5.6W6.0W6.8L5.6W5.6W2021-012023-012025-012026-01
WinLossTrend

Barcelos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W5.7W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.5L6.4L4.5W2.8L6.2L6.3W6.0W5.6W5.2W5.4W2018-072020-112023-012025-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Barcelos · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Cody GarbrandtRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R3
Cristian QuinonezRating 6.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

News & Media

Umar Nurmagomedov · Raoni Barcelos
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