UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Heavyweight
VS
25%
Nelson
75%
Miocic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miocic
Miocic is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miocic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Miocic has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Miocic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+80"
49
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Miocic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
56.3
55.6
Performance Avg
64.9
61
Quality of Victory
59
26
Momentum Score
78
Nelson
Miocic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
53%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
8 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
31
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance31
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Nelson
Miocic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Miocic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
19/25 fights
Nelson
Miocic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
78
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Nelson
Miocic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
64%
8
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Miocic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
NelsonMiocic
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedMiocic
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Miocic targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Miocic
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Miocic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Miocic · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierRating 4.5Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07