METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Heavyweight
VS
25%
Nelson
75%
Miocic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Stipe MiocicwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Roy Nelson · UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Miocic
→
Actual result
Miocic wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Miocic is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Miocic has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonMiocic
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Miocic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+80"
50
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Miocic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
56.3
55.6
Performance Avg
64.9
61
Quality of Victory
59
26
Momentum Score
78
Nelson
Miocic
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
7.9
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
6.7
1.8
Style: Volume
4.3
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
9 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
31
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance31
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Nelson
Miocic
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Miocic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
19/25 fights
Nelson
Miocic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
78
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Nelson
Miocic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
64%
8
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Miocic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
NelsonMiocic
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedMiocic
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Miocic targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Miocic
0/0R00/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Miocic · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesKO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouKO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierDecision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierKO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierKO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07