UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Stockholm, Sweden
1 Jun 2019
Lightweight
VS
97%
Alvarez
3%
Belluardo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvarez
Alvarez is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 59 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 51 points.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Belluardo has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvarez
Belluardo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
74"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
Belluardo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
1.6
59.7
Performance Avg
0.0
51
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Alvarez
Belluardo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.2
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
10Ground0
Alvarez
Belluardo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvarez
Belluardo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
56
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/17 fights
Alvarez
Belluardo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Alvarez
Belluardo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Belluardo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AlvarezBelluardo
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBelluardo
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (92% of attacks) — Belluardo absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Belluardo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Belluardo
0/0R00/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Belluardo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Belluardo · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Mark MadsenRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · KO · R2
Joel AlvarezRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06