UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Lightweight
VS
51%
Hooker
49%
Chandler
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hooker
This is a genuine toss-up — Hooker at 51% vs Chandler at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Chandler has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Hooker throws more volume but Chandler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hooker's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hooker
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
75"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hooker
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.3
50.3
50.3
Performance Avg
45.9
45
Quality of Victory
58
78
Momentum Score
46
Hooker
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
57%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
12
0
Body
4
8
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground10
Hooker
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hooker
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Hooker
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Hooker
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hooker
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
HookerChandler
Strike Zones
Hooker
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedChandler
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hooker targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (71% of attacks) — Hooker absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hooker
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hooker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Chandler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Hooker · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz GamrotRating 5.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jalin TurnerRating 5.7Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Claudio PuellesRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Chandler · Last 5
Upcoming
Mauricio RuffyUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05