METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
46%
Smith
54%
Mingyang
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:03
★ Official Result
Zhang MingyangwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:03
def. Anthony Smith · UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mingyang
→
Actual result
Mingyang wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 46% vs Mingyang at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mingyang has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mingyang has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithMingyang
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Mingyang
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Mingyang
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
68.7
50.7
Performance Avg
60.0
50
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
91
Smith
Mingyang
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
6.9
Style: Pressure
8.8
2.3
Style: Volume
1.2
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
42
2
Body
6
0
Leg
15
RangeRange
10Distance35
0Clinch3
0Ground25
Smith
Mingyang
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Mingyang
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
5/26 fights
Smith
Mingyang
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
91
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Smith
Mingyang
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Mingyang
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
SmithMingyang
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
63 absorbedMingyang
Attacking
63 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (80% of attacks) — Mingyang absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Mingyang targets the head (67% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Mingyang
0/0R00/0
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeDecision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoSubmission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
Mingyang · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Anthony SmithKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Ozzy DiazKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Brendson RibeiroKO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02