UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
44%
Smith
56%
Mingyang
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:03
Anthony
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38 – 22
6'4"76" reachOrthodox37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Zhang
Zhang Mingyang
"Mountain Tiger"
19 – 7
Knockout Artist27 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 76

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mingyang

This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 44% vs Mingyang at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mingyang has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Mingyang has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smith
Mingyang
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
37
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Mingyang
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
75.5
50.7
Performance Avg
66.0
50
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
100
Smith
Mingyang
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
3.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
66%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
42
2
Body
6
0
Leg
15
RangeRange
10Distance35
0Clinch3
0Ground25
Smith
Mingyang
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Mingyang
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
5/26 fights
Smith
Mingyang
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Smith
Mingyang
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smith
Mingyang
Striking4.9 / 10.0Volume2.3 / 1.5Grappling3.5 / 0.0Wrestling2.4 / 0.0Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 9.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.3
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.5
Smith
Strike Zones
Mingyang
Smith
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
42HEAD6BODY15LEGS63 absorbed
Mingyang
Attacking
42HEAD6BODY15LEGS63 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (80% of attacks) — Mingyang absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Mingyang targets the head (67% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smith
RND
Mingyang
0/0R00/0

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0101.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5W5.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W6.0W7.3L5.4W4.4L5.6L5.0W5.5W5.4W4.3L6.3L4.9W4.9L6.1W6.9L3.8L3.5L2013-062018-062020-112024-052025-04
WinLossTrend

Mingyang · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W5.0W6.2W2.9L2024-022024-112025-042025-08
WinLossTrend

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

Mingyang · Last 5

Upcoming
Alonzo Menifield
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Ozzy DiazRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Brendson RibeiroRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

News & Media

Anthony Smith · Zhang Mingyang
← Back to fights