METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
A heavyweight with a chin rating of eight faces a 28-year-old who has won three in a row and finished two of them.
Serghei Spivac's chin rating is 8.0. That is not a rounding artefact or a small-sample quirk — he has fifteen recorded UFC fights, and the model has watched Ciryl Gane stop him in the second round in September 2023 and Jailton Almeida do it in 4:53 of the first in January 2025. At heavyweight, that number is close to a disqualification from any fight against someone who punches. Vitor Petrino pun…
Spivac (18-6) beat Ante Delija on the cards in February after losing a decision to Waldo Cortes Acosta and being knocked out by Jailton Almeida inside a round. He is 31 with fifteen recorded UFC fights, and his chin rating of 8.0 and momentum score of 32.5 are both the lowest figures in this bout by a wide margin.
Petrino (14-2) has won three straight — a decision over Steven Asplund in March, a third-round KO of Thomas Petersen in October 2025, a first-round submission of Austen Lane in July 2025. At 28 he is the younger man, and his two defeats, to Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith, both came inside the distance.
A chin rating of 8.0 against 66.0 — the lowest chin rating on the card against a functional one
Spivac leads every grappling metric, but only just, and Petrino has a first-round submission win of his own
Petrino's 4.98 volume against a fighter who cannot afford many clean connections
Spivac's 2.5cm reach edge and 6.47 pressure — his route requires him to come forward, which is exactly where the risk is
Both of Petrino's defeats came by stoppage; he is not untouchable either
Petrino has been submitted in the first round before, and Spivac's 3.33 submission rating is the higher of the two
A 66.0 chin is not a fortress; if Spivac lands early the fight can invert in a single exchange
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown