METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
80%
III
20%
Hope
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kai Kamaka IIIwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dakota Hope · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
III
→
Actual result
III wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
III is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
III has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
III's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
IIIHope
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
III
Hope
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
68"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
—
III
Hope
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
7.8
31.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
40
Momentum Score
0
III
Hope
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Style: Pressure
0.0
8.8
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
20
18
Body
11
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
33Distance22
10Clinch10
0Ground0
III
Hope
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
III
Hope
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/25 fights
Chin rating based on
1/13 fights
III
Hope
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
III
Hope
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
III
Hope
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
IIIHope
Strike Zones
III
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedHope
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯III targets the head (51% of attacks) — Hope absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Hope targets the head (63% of attacks) — III absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
III
RND
Hope
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
III · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Luke RileyKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Dakota HopeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Upcoming
Danny ChavezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownDecision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Jonathan PearceKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Hope · Last 1
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04