UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
83%
III
17%
Hope
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kai
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
18 – 7
5'7"69" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Dakota
Dakota Hope
"Huracan"
11 – 2
Well-Rounded29 yrs68" reach5'6"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: III

III is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

III has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Hope throws more volume but III connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

III
Hope
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
68"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
—
III
Hope
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.8
7.8
35.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
III
Hope
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.1
61%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
20
18
Body
11
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
33Distance22
10Clinch10
0Ground0
III
Hope
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
III
Hope
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/25 fights
Chin rating based on
1/13 fights
III
Hope
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
III
Hope
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

III
Hope
Striking1.0 / 0.0Volume9.0 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
III
Strike Zones
Hope
III
Attacking
22HEAD18BODY3LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD11BODY1LEGS32 absorbed
Hope
Attacking
20HEAD11BODY1LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD18BODY3LEGS43 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯III targets the head (51% of attacks) — Hope absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Hope targets the head (63% of attacks) — III absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

III
RND
Hope
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

III · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W3.2L5.5L4.5W2020-082020-112021-052026-04
WinLossTrend

III · Last 5

Upcoming
Luke Riley
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Dakota HopeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Upcoming
Danny Chavez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11

Hope · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04

News & Media

Kai Kamaka III · Dakota Hope
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