UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
8%
Fernandez
92%
Bellato
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:42
Luke
Luke Fernandez
6 – 1
6'1"76" reachOrthodox30 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 6
Rodolfo
Rodolfo Bellato
"Trator"
13 – 3
Knockout Artist30 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 70

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bellato

Bellato is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 64 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bellato has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 58 points.

Striking split: Fernandez throws more volume but Bellato connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Fernandez
Bellato
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"+
Reach
75"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fernandez
Bellato
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.2
69.8
0.0
Performance Avg
61.2
0
Quality of Victory
58
0
Momentum Score
78
Fernandez
Bellato
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
6.4
3.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
64%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
24
3
Body
4
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance9
7Clinch1
0Ground20
Fernandez
Bellato
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Fernandez
Bellato
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/7 fights
Chin rating based on
5/16 fights
Fernandez
Bellato
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
78
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
Fernandez
Bellato
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fernandez
Bellato
Striking0.0 / 10.0Volume0.0 / 1.3Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 9.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
Fernandez
Strike Zones
Bellato
Fernandez
Attacking
12HEAD3BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD4BODY2LEGS30 absorbed
Bellato
Attacking
24HEAD4BODY2LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD3BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fernandez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Bellato absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Bellato targets the head (80% of attacks) — Fernandez absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fernandez
RND
Bellato
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Bellato · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W7.0L5.0W2023-122025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Fernandez · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Rodolfo BellatoRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

Bellato · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Luke FernandezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
Upcoming
Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
Upcoming
Jimmy Crute
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · KO · R2
Ihor PotieriaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

News & Media

Luke Fernandez · Rodolfo Bellato
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