UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Las Vegas, USA
7 Dec 2024
Welterweight
VS
52%
Chiesa
48%
Griffin
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:56
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Max
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20 – 13
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 52% vs Griffin at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Griffin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chiesa
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
46.4
53.3
Performance Avg
39.0
43
Quality of Victory
37
50
Momentum Score
74
Chiesa
Griffin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chiesa
Griffin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Chiesa
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
74
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
38%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
9
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Griffin
Striking1.4 / 4.6Volume4.6 / 5.8Grappling5.8 / 1.5Wrestling4.0 / 1.1Submission6.0 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Chiesa
Strike Zones
Griffin
Chiesa
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Griffin
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (100% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Griffin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.3L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L7.0W5.4W4.5W6.1L4.6W7.6L5.9W4.8L6.2L6.8L2016-082019-022021-032024-022026-04
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Griffin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Max Griffin
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