UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
Sacramento, USA
14 Dec 2013
Lightweight
VS
28%
Castillo
72%
Barboza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
5'9"71" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Edson
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24 – 14
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barboza

Barboza is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barboza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barboza has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Castillo
Barboza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+75"
46
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Castillo
Barboza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
44.9
40.6
Performance Avg
46.3
34
Quality of Victory
40
89
Momentum Score
60
Castillo
Barboza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
0
Body
5
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
9Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Castillo
Barboza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castillo
Barboza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
32/38 fights
Castillo
Barboza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
60
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Castillo
Barboza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castillo
Barboza
Striking3.9 / 6.1Volume6.7 / 5.1Grappling1.7 / 1.2Wrestling1.2 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Castillo
Strike Zones
Barboza
Castillo
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD5BODY7LEGS16 absorbed
Barboza
Attacking
4HEAD5BODY7LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (89% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Barboza targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castillo
RND
Barboza
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Barboza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.6L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W6.2W5.5L5.5L6.4W3.1L5.5L6.2L4.6W5.5W3.7L6.5L6.2W5.3W7.0L6.5L2.7L2010-112014-042017-032021-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

Barboza · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

News & Media

Danny Castillo · Edson Barboza
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