UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
50%
Martinez
50%
Reed
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Melissa
Melissa Martinez
"Super Mely"
8 – 2
5'2"66" reachSouthpaw28 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 31
Elise
Elise Reed
8 – 5
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'3"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Martinez

This is a genuine toss-up — Martinez at 50% vs Reed at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Reed has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Reed has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Martinez
Reed
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
66"+
Reach
63"
28+
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Martinez
Reed
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.8
30.3
28.3
Performance Avg
32.8
25
Quality of Victory
25
33
Momentum Score
45
Martinez
Reed
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
3
Body
6
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance4
2Clinch7
2Ground5
Martinez
Reed
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Martinez
Reed
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
10
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/10 fights
Chin rating based on
9/13 fights
Martinez
Reed
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
45
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Martinez
Reed
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Martinez
Reed
Striking0.7 / 0.9Volume8.7 / 8.9Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Martinez
Strike Zones
Reed
Martinez
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY6LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD6BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Reed
Attacking
8HEAD6BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY6LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Martinez targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Reed absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Reed targets the head (50% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Martinez
RND
Reed
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Martinez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.6L2022-092024-102025-07
WinLossTrend

Reed · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0101.5L5.0W4.7L4.5W3.7L4.5W3.2L4.6W4.0L2021-072022-092023-092025-05
WinLossTrend

Martinez · Last 3

L · KO · R3
Fatima KlineRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Alice ArdeleanRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Elise ReedRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09

Reed · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Denise GomesRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jessica PenneRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Loopy GodinezRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Jinh Yu FreyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R2
Loma LookboonmeeRating 3.7
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

News & Media

Melissa Martinez · Elise Reed
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