UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Elmont, USA
16 Jul 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Jacoby
43%
Jung
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jacoby
This is a genuine toss-up — Jacoby at 57% vs Jung at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jacoby has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jacoby's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jung has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jacoby
Jung
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+78"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jacoby
Jung
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
46.4
53.8
Performance Avg
48.5
48
Quality of Victory
48
91
Momentum Score
50
Jacoby
Jung
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
36%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
1
Body
1
7
Leg
7
RangeRange
14Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Jacoby
Jung
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jacoby
Jung
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/31 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Jacoby
Jung
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
50
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Jacoby
Jung
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jacoby
Jung
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
JacobyJung
Strike Zones
Jacoby
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedJung
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jacoby targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Jung absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Jung targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jacoby
RND
Jung
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jacoby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Jung · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Jacoby · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Julius WalkerRating 5.2KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Jung · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Oumar SyRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Sub · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 5.9Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Devin ClarkRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
L · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · KO · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11