METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Las Vegas, USA
16 Sept 2023
Featherweight
VS
60%
Padilla
40%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kyle NelsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Fernando Padilla · Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Padilla
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Padilla holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Padilla has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PadillaNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Padilla
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
71"
29+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Padilla
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.1
36.8
54.2
Performance Avg
41.6
57
Quality of Victory
39
58
Momentum Score
36
Padilla
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
8.5
Style: Pressure
4.2
1.0
Style: Volume
5.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
15
6
Body
6
4
Leg
6
RangeRange
22Distance26
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Padilla
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Padilla
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/22 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Padilla
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
36
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Padilla
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Padilla
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
PadillaNelson
Strike Zones
Padilla
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedNelson
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Padilla targets the head (58% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (56% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Padilla
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Padilla · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Sean WoodsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Luis PajueloSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09