UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Las Vegas, USA
16 Sept 2023
Featherweight
VS
62%
Padilla
38%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Fernando
Fernando Padilla
"El Valiente"
16 – 6
6'1"76" reachOrthodox29 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 60
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Padilla

Padilla holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Padilla has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Padilla throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Padilla
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
71"
29+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Padilla
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.1
36.8
54.2
Performance Avg
41.6
57
Quality of Victory
39
58
Momentum Score
36
Padilla
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.4
1.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
15
6
Body
6
4
Leg
6
RangeRange
22Distance26
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Padilla
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Padilla
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/22 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Padilla
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
36
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Padilla
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Padilla
Nelson
Striking6.0 / 4.9Volume1.0 / 5.7Grappling4.0 / 1.4Wrestling2.8 / 1.0Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure8.5 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Padilla
Strike Zones
Nelson
Padilla
Attacking
14HEAD6BODY4LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD6BODY6LEGS27 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
15HEAD6BODY6LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD6BODY4LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Padilla targets the head (58% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (56% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Padilla
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Padilla · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.6L5.0W2.6L2023-042023-092024-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Padilla · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Sean WoodsonRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Luis PajueloRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Fernando Padilla · Kyle Nelson
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