UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
75%
Lima
25%
Antigulov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Antigulov throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lima's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Antigulov has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lima
Antigulov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
70"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lima
Antigulov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.3
16.0
53.8
Performance Avg
45.7
49
Quality of Victory
54
59
Momentum Score
33
Lima
Antigulov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Lima
Antigulov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lima
Antigulov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
22
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Lima
Antigulov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Lima
Antigulov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lima
Antigulov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
LimaAntigulov
Strike Zones
Lima
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedAntigulov
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lima targets the head (100% of attacks) — Antigulov absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lima
RND
Antigulov
0/0R00/0
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Antigulov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Antigulov · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Maxim GrishinRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · Sub · R1
Paul CraigRating 2.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · KO · R1
Ion CutelabaRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Sub · R1
Joachim ChristensenRating 5Submission
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05