UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
Los Angeles, USA
29 Dec 2018
Featherweight
VS
25%
Mendes
75%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:14
CM
Chad Mendes
"Money"
18 – 5
5'6"66" reachOrthodox41 yrsStriker
CFR 21
Alexander
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'6"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mendes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mendes
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mendes
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.1
64.0
54.7
Performance Avg
59.8
48
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
100
Mendes
Volkanovski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
61%
8.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
29
3
Body
6
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance30
3Clinch5
0Ground3
Mendes
Volkanovski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mendes
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Mendes
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Mendes
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mendes
Volkanovski
Striking8.0 / 5.0Volume4.0 / 7.0Grappling0.8 / 1.6Wrestling0.6 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Mendes
Strike Zones
Volkanovski
Mendes
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD6BODY3LEGS38 absorbed
Volkanovski
Attacking
29HEAD6BODY3LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mendes targets the head (69% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (76% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mendes
RND
Volkanovski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mendes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.9W2.0L5.0W5.0W5.5W6.0W4.5W6.0L5.0W4.1L1.5L5.0W4.2L2011-022012-122014-102018-072018-12
WinLossTrend

Volkanovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.6W5.6W5.9W5.9W5.6W7.5L6.8W3.5L4.5L5.8W5.8W2016-112018-122022-042024-022026-01
WinLossTrend

Mendes · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R1
Myles JuryRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · KO · R1
Frankie EdgarRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04

Volkanovski · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · KO · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07

News & Media

Chad Mendes · Alexander Volkanovski
← Back to fights