UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Aug 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
50%
Machida
50%
Davis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
PD
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
17 – 4
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'2"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Machida

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 50% vs Davis at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Machida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Machida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Machida
Davis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+79"
47
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Davis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
18.8
53.8
Performance Avg
50.2
45
Quality of Victory
34
78
Momentum Score
64
Machida
Davis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
34%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
7
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance4
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Machida
Davis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Davis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/21 fights
Machida
Davis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
64
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Machida
Davis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Davis
Striking5.7 / 1.5Volume5.3 / 6.8Grappling1.7 / 4.3Wrestling1.2 / 3.0Submission0.6 / 3.3Pressure5.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Machida
Strike Zones
Davis
Machida
Attacking
3HEAD7BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY4LEGS5 absorbed
Davis
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY4LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD7BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the body (70% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Davis targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Davis
0/0R00/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.9W5.5L2010-022010-112012-102014-042015-01
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Davis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Vinny MagalhaesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Phil Davis
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