UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Women's Flyweight
VS
59%
Judice
41%
Caliari
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:30
Carli
Carli Judice
"Crispy"
6 – 2
5'7"68" reachSouthpaw27 yrs3-fight win streakStriker
CFR 68
Nicolle
Nicolle Caliari
9 – 4
Submission Hunter29 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Judice

This is a genuine toss-up — Judice at 59% vs Caliari at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Judice has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Judice
Caliari
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'3"
68"+
Reach
62"
27+
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Judice
Caliari
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
46.7
57.0
Performance Avg
40.3
45
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
35
Judice
Caliari
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.2
0.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
42%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
5
6
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance5
4Clinch0
2Ground0
Judice
Caliari
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Judice
Caliari
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/8 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Judice
Caliari
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
35
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Judice
Caliari
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Judice
Caliari
Striking8.2 / 0.7Volume4.2 / 0.7Grappling0.8 / 8.0Wrestling0.6 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure6.9 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Judice
Strike Zones
Caliari
Judice
Attacking
18HEAD6BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Caliari
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD6BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Judice targets the head (75% of attacks) — Caliari absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Caliari targets the head (100% of attacks) — Judice absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Judice
RND
Caliari
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Judice · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.9L5.0W6.1W4.7W2024-062025-032025-072026-02
WinLossTrend

Caliari · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.7L6.0W2025-012025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Judice · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Juliana MillerRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R3
Nicolle CaliariRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Yuneisy DubenRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06

Caliari · Last 3

W · Sub · R3
Shauna BannonRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Carli JudiceRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Ernesta KareckaiteRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

News & Media

Carli Judice · Nicolle Caliari
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