Julian Erosa vs Christian Rodriguez — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez

Denver, USA

13 Jul 2024

Featherweight

42%

Erosa

58%

Rodriguez

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 4:49

Julian Erosa

"Juicy J"

31 – 14

6'1"74" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 40

Christian Rodriguez

"Ceerod"

12 – 4

Well-Rounded28 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"

CFR 55

★ Official Result

Julian ErosawinsSubmissionR1 · 4:49

def. Christian Rodriguez · UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Rodriguez

→

Actual result

Erosa wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Erosa at 42% vs Rodriguez at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

ErosaRodriguez

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Erosa

Rodriguez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"+

Height

5'7"

74"+

Reach

71"

Age

+28

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Erosa

Rodriguez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

39.6

55.0

46.2

Performance Avg

44.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Erosa

Rodriguez

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.2

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

6.2

Style: Pressure

4.1

3.7

Style: Volume

6.5

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

33Distance31

2Clinch0

0Ground2

Erosa

Rodriguez

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.4

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

3.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.0

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Erosa

Rodriguez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.4 stoppage

KO round context

—

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

18/45 fights

Chin rating based on

10/16 fights

Erosa

Rodriguez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

Last 5

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

Erosa

Rodriguez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Erosa

Rodriguez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.2

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.2

4.4

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.3

3.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

6.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.1

3.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.5

Erosa

Strike Zones

Rodriguez

Erosa

Attacking

35 landed

Absorbing

33 absorbed

Rodriguez

Attacking

33 landed

Absorbing

35 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Erosa targets the head (77% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 77% of strikes there

🎯Rodriguez targets the head (79% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Erosa

RND

Rodriguez

0/0R00/0

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Lerryan Douglas

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03

L · Dec · R3

Melquizael Costa

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

W · KO · R1

Darren Elkins

KO/TKO

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

W · Sub · R1

Christian Rodriguez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

W · Sub · R1

Ricardo Ramos

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Sub · R1

Hyder Amil

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

L · Dec · R3

Andre Fili

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

Melquizael Costa

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Austin Bashi

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

L · Sub · R1

Julian Erosa

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

News & Media

Julian Erosa · Christian Rodriguez

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