UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
Denver, USA
13 Jul 2024
Featherweight
VS
46%
Erosa
54%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
This is a genuine toss-up — Erosa at 46% vs Rodriguez at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Erosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Erosa throws more volume but Rodriguez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Erosa
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
71"
36
Age
+28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Erosa
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
46.2
46.2
Performance Avg
40.7
44
Quality of Victory
31
26
Momentum Score
64
Erosa
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
26
7
Body
2
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
33Distance31
2Clinch0
0Ground2
Erosa
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Erosa
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
82
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Erosa
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
64
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Erosa
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erosa
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
ErosaRodriguez
Strike Zones
Erosa
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (77% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (79% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erosa
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Rodriguez · Last 5
Upcoming
Hyder AmilUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin BashiRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Sub · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07