UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
Buffalo, USA
8 Apr 2017
Welterweight
VS
51%
Alves
49%
Cote
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
PC
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
23 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alves

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 51% vs Cote at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Cote connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cote has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Cote
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+75"
42+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Cote
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
16.1
47.3
Performance Avg
41.8
42
Quality of Victory
38
63
Momentum Score
79
Alves
Cote
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
5
Body
3
9
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance9
3Clinch3
3Ground0
Alves
Cote
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Cote
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
21/34 fights
Alves
Cote
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
79
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Cote
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
40%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Cote
Striking5.8 / 5.0Volume4.3 / 5.0Grappling1.5 / 1.2Wrestling1.0 / 0.8Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.4 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Alves
Strike Zones
Cote
Alves
Attacking
9HEAD5BODY9LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Cote
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD5BODY9LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (39% of attacks) — Cote absorbs 39% of strikes there
🎯Cote targets the head (58% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Cote
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Cote · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L4.0L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.8L2.8L5.5L5.5L4.0W4.5W4.5W6.1L4.5W5.5W5.2W4.0L5.5L2004-102008-012012-112016-012017-04
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Cote · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · KO · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
W · KO · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
W · Dec · R3
Joe RiggsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Patrick Cote
← Back to fights