★ Championship Bout · Women's Flyweight
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
51%
Shevchenko
49%
Grasso
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 4:34
Valentina
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26 – 4
5'5"66" reachSouthpaw38 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 62
Alexa
Alexa Grasso
17 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'5"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Shevchenko

This is a genuine toss-up — Shevchenko at 51% vs Grasso at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Shevchenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Grasso throws more volume but Shevchenko connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Shevchenko
Grasso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
66"
38
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Shevchenko
Grasso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.2
59.1
66.5
Performance Avg
52.8
55
Quality of Victory
45
53
Momentum Score
84
Shevchenko
Grasso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
58%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
8
2
Body
3
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
22Distance12
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Shevchenko
Grasso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Shevchenko
Grasso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
80
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Shevchenko
Grasso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
84
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R4
Shevchenko
Grasso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Shevchenko
Grasso
Striking4.3 / 2.4Volume6.5 / 6.6Grappling2.5 / 3.4Wrestling1.8 / 2.4Submission1.3 / 2.2Pressure5.3 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Shevchenko
Strike Zones
Grasso
Shevchenko
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Grasso
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Shevchenko targets the head (86% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Grasso targets the head (62% of attacks) — Shevchenko absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Shevchenko
RND
Grasso
0/0R00/0

Shevchenko · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W6.7L4.6W6.7W6.7L6.2W4.5W5.1W4.5W5.6W4.5W5.9W6.2W4.7W4.6L5.7W6.1W6.3W2015-122018-022020-112024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Grasso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5L4.5W3.4L4.5W5.8L4.5W5.5W5.2W5.2W6.7W6.9L7.0L6.0W2016-112019-062022-032025-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Shevchenko · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Manon FiorotRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Alexa GrassoRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Alexa Grasso
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · Sub · R4
Alexa GrassoRating 4.6
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

Grasso · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Sub · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

News & Media

Valentina Shevchenko · Alexa Grasso
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