UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
6 Aug 2022
Welterweight
VS
54%
Luque
46%
Neal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 54% vs Neal at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Neal has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Neal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Luque
Neal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
55.8
57.2
Performance Avg
51.7
50
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
72
Luque
Neal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
29
3
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance21
0Clinch8
0Ground0
Luque
Neal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
7
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Neal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
38
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Luque
Neal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Luque
Neal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
7
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Neal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
LuqueNeal
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedNeal
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (50% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Neal targets the head (100% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Neal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
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