UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher
Hollywood, USA
12 Jun 2007
Lightweight
VS
88%
Tavares
12%
Black
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:49
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
5'7"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
JB
Jason Black
"The Black Legion"
23 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide53 yrsOrthodox5'8"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tavares

Tavares is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tavares has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.

Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tavares
Black
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
41+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Black
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
2.4
48.8
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
81
Momentum Score
0
Tavares
Black
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
20%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Tavares
Black
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Black
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
2/27 fights
Tavares
Black
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Tavares
Black
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tavares
Black
Striking2.2 / 0.0Volume4.4 / 0.0Grappling5.0 / 0.0Wrestling3.5 / 0.0Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure6.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Tavares
Strike Zones
Black
Tavares
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Black
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (50% of attacks) — Black absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tavares
RND
Black
0/0R00/0

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Black · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0102.8L5.5L2007-062007-10
WinLossTrend

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Black · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Matt GriceRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · Sub · R2
Thiago TavaresRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06

News & Media

Thiago Tavares · Jason Black
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