UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2020
Middleweight
VS
87%
Vieira
13%
Safarov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:58
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vieira
Vieira is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vieira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Safarov throws more volume but Vieira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Vieira's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Safarov has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Vieira
Safarov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+78"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vieira
Safarov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
8.8
49.5
Performance Avg
25.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
22
Vieira
Safarov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
0
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance5
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Vieira
Safarov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
7.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
8.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vieira
Safarov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Vieira
Safarov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Vieira
Safarov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vieira
Safarov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
7.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
8.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
2.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
VieiraSafarov
Strike Zones
Vieira
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSafarov
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vieira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Safarov absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Safarov targets the head (40% of attacks) — Vieira absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vieira
RND
Safarov
0/0R00/0
Vieira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Safarov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Vieira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eric McConicoRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Tresean GoreRating 5.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Andre PetroskiRating 6Decision
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Safarov · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Rodolfo VieiraRating 2.8Submission
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
W · Dec · R3
Nicolae NegumereanuRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Tyson PedroRating 2.5Submission
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
L · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 2.8KO/TKO
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