UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia
Kallang, Singapore
17 Jun 2017
Flyweight
VS
43%
Scoggins
57%
Sasaki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sasaki
This is a genuine toss-up — Scoggins at 43% vs Sasaki at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Sasaki has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Scoggins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Scoggins's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sasaki has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Scoggins
Sasaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Scoggins
Sasaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
17.8
38.0
Performance Avg
48.2
34
Quality of Victory
51
39
Momentum Score
46
Scoggins
Sasaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.2
63%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
8Ground1
Scoggins
Sasaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Scoggins
Sasaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/16 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Scoggins
Sasaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Scoggins
Sasaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Scoggins
Sasaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
ScogginsSasaki
Strike Zones
Scoggins
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSasaki
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Scoggins targets the head (89% of attacks) — Sasaki absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Sasaki targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Scoggins absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Scoggins
RND
Sasaki
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Scoggins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Sasaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Scoggins · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Sub · R2
Yuta SasakiRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Sub · R2
Pedro MunhozRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Ray BorgRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Josh SampoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Sasaki · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Jenel LausaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
W · Sub · R2
Justin ScogginsRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02