METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Seattle, USA
28 Mar 2026
Lightweight
VS
63%
McKinney
37%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:24
★ Official Result
Terrance McKinneywinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:24
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McKinney
→
Actual result
McKinney wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
McKinney holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
McKinney's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McKinneyNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McKinney
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
McKinney
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.9
36.8
57.5
Performance Avg
41.6
58
Quality of Victory
39
98
Momentum Score
36
McKinney
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
8.7
Style: Pressure
4.2
1.1
Style: Volume
5.7
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance1
0Clinch0
8Ground0
McKinney
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McKinney
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
McKinney
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
36
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
McKinney
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKinney
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
McKinneyNelson
Strike Zones
McKinney
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNelson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKinney
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
McKinney · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanSubmission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevSubmission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09