UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Seattle, USA
28 Mar 2026
Lightweight
VS
64%
McKinney
36%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McKinney
McKinney holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
McKinney has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McKinney's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McKinney
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
McKinney
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
36.8
59.3
Performance Avg
41.6
58
Quality of Victory
39
98
Momentum Score
36
McKinney
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.1
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance1
0Clinch0
8Ground0
McKinney
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McKinney
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
McKinney
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
36
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
McKinney
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKinney
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
McKinneyNelson
Strike Zones
McKinney
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNelson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKinney
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
McKinney · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
McKinney · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.5Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Esteban RibovicsRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8Decision
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