UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Heavyweight
VS
12%
Mulheron
88%
Willis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
James Mulheron
11 – 2
5'10"73" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 3
JW
Justin Willis
"Big Pretty"
8 – 2
Well-Rounded38 yrsSouthpaw78" reach6'1"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Willis

Willis is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Willis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Willis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Mulheron
Willis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+78"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mulheron
Willis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
20.4
0.0
Performance Avg
52.2
0
Quality of Victory
34
0
Momentum Score
83
Mulheron
Willis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
36%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
12
7
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance14
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Mulheron
Willis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mulheron
Willis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/13 fights
Chin rating based on
5/10 fights
Mulheron
Willis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
83
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Mulheron
Willis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mulheron
Willis
Striking0.0 / 4.1Volume0.0 / 7.6Grappling0.0 / 1.8Wrestling0.0 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
Mulheron
Strike Zones
Willis
Mulheron
Attacking
7HEAD7BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Willis
Attacking
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD7BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mulheron targets the head (47% of attacks) — Willis absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Willis targets the head (80% of attacks) — Mulheron absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mulheron
RND
Willis
0/0R00/0

Willis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4L2017-072017-122018-042018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Mulheron · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Justin WillisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

Willis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Mark HuntRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Allen CrowderRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
James MulheronRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

News & Media

James Mulheron · Justin Willis
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