METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Heavyweight
VS
12%
Mulheron
88%
Willis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin WilliswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. James Mulheron · UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Willis
→
Actual result
Willis wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Willis is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Willis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Willis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MulheronWillis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mulheron
Willis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+78"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mulheron
Willis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
20.4
0.0
Performance Avg
52.2
0
Quality of Victory
34
0
Momentum Score
83
Mulheron
Willis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.4
36%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
12
7
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance14
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Mulheron
Willis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mulheron
Willis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/13 fights
Chin rating based on
5/10 fights
Mulheron
Willis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
83
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Mulheron
Willis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mulheron
Willis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
MulheronWillis
Strike Zones
Mulheron
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedWillis
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mulheron targets the head (47% of attacks) — Willis absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Willis targets the head (80% of attacks) — Mulheron absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mulheron
RND
Willis
0/0R00/0
Willis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Mulheron · Last 1
L · Dec · R3
Justin WillisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
Willis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Mark HuntRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Allen CrowderRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
James MulheronRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07