METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann
Nashville, USA
1 Apr 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
68%
Bader
32%
Marrero
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Carmelo Marrero · UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Bader holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Marrero has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bader has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaderMarrero
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bader
Marrero
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
73"
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Marrero
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
9.3
54.2
Performance Avg
25.0
40
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
22
Bader
Marrero
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
0.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
16%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
1
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance3
1Clinch0
4Ground0
Bader
Marrero
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Marrero
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Bader
Marrero
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Bader
Marrero
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bader
Marrero
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
BaderMarrero
Strike Zones
Bader
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMarrero
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (67% of attacks) — Marrero absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Marrero targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bader
RND
Marrero
0/0R00/0
Bader · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Marrero · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Marrero · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann · 2009-04
L · Sub · R1
Wilson GouveiaRating 1.5Submission
UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson · 2007-05
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5Submission
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2 · 2006-12
W · Dec · R3
Cheick KongoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 64: Unstoppable · 2006-10