UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Middleweight
VS
56%
Belcher
44%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:48
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
JM
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
25 – 16
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Belcher

This is a genuine toss-up — Belcher at 56% vs MacDonald at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Belcher throws more volume but MacDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Belcher's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

MacDonald has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Belcher
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+80"
42+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Belcher
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.4
17.3
53.0
Performance Avg
48.8
48
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
52
Belcher
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
0
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
1Clinch2
24Ground0
Belcher
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Belcher
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/26 fights
Chin rating based on
14/41 fights
Belcher
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Belcher
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Belcher
MacDonald
Striking5.6 / 4.2Volume2.1 / 0.9Grappling2.9 / 5.3Wrestling2.0 / 3.7Submission3.3 / 6.7Pressure7.2 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Belcher
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Belcher
Attacking
24HEAD1BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
MacDonald
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD1BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Belcher targets the head (96% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the body (100% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Belcher
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0105.2W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W1.5L1.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L1.5L2006-102007-102008-122011-092012-05
WinLossTrend

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

MacDonald · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom LawlorRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenRating 5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · KO · R1
John SalterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04

News & Media

Alan Belcher · Jason MacDonald
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