METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Middleweight
VS
56%
Belcher
44%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:48
★ Official Result
Alan BelcherwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:48
def. Jason MacDonald · UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Belcher
→
Actual result
Belcher wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Belcher at 56% vs MacDonald at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Belcher's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
MacDonald has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BelcherMacDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Belcher
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+80"
42+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Belcher
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.4
17.3
53.0
Performance Avg
48.8
48
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
52
Belcher
MacDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
7.2
Style: Pressure
8.3
2.1
Style: Volume
0.9
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
0
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
1Clinch2
24Ground0
Belcher
MacDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
3
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Belcher
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/26 fights
Chin rating based on
14/41 fights
Belcher
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Belcher
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Belcher
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
BelcherMacDonald
Strike Zones
Belcher
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Belcher targets the head (96% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the body (100% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Belcher
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
Belcher · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingDecision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteSubmission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
MacDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom LawlorKO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenSubmission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · KO · R1
John SalterKO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryKO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04