UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Welterweight
VS
34%
Burns
66%
Morales
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:39
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
5'10"71" reachOrthodox39 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
Michael
Michael Morales
19 – 0
Knockout Artist7-fight win streak26 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'0"
CFR 77

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Morales

Morales holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Burns has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Morales has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Burns
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+79"
39
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
76.5
48.1
Performance Avg
70.0
40
Quality of Victory
50
28
Momentum Score
100
Burns
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
3.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
31
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance25
0Clinch2
0Ground6
Burns
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burns
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Burns
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Burns
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
71%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burns
Morales
Striking3.2 / 9.1Volume4.9 / 4.3Grappling3.8 / 0.7Wrestling2.6 / 0.5Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Burns
Strike Zones
Morales
Burns
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD0BODY2LEGS33 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
31HEAD0BODY2LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (80% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (94% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 94% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burns
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.2W5.7W5.1W5.5W5.6W5.2W6.1W2022-012023-072024-082025-11
WinLossTrend

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Morales · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Sean BradyRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

News & Media

Gilbert Burns · Michael Morales
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