UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Las Vegas, USA
13 Jan 2024
Bantamweight
VS
46%
Simon
54%
Bautista
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bautista
This is a genuine toss-up — Simon at 46% vs Bautista at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Simon's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Simon
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
69"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Simon
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
56.7
48.0
Performance Avg
54.6
38
Quality of Victory
39
56
Momentum Score
73
Simon
Bautista
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
43
0
Body
13
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance54
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Simon
Bautista
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Simon
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/29 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Simon
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
73
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Simon
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
46%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Simon
Bautista
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
SimonBautista
Strike Zones
Simon
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
56 absorbedBautista
Attacking
56 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Simon targets the head (93% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the head (77% of attacks) — Simon absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Simon
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
Simon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Simon · Last 5
Upcoming
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