METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
50%
Smith
50%
Petrino
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:00
★ Official Result
Anthony SmithwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:00
def. Vitor Petrino · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 50% vs Petrino at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Petrino has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithPetrino
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Petrino
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
+77"
38
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Petrino
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
58.9
50.7
Performance Avg
54.8
50
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
81
Smith
Petrino
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
6.9
Style: Pressure
5.9
2.3
Style: Volume
5.6
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
0
Body
4
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Smith
Petrino
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
5
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Petrino
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Smith
Petrino
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
81
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Smith
Petrino
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Petrino
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
SmithPetrino
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedPetrino
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (64% of attacks) — Petrino absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Petrino targets the head (40% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Petrino
0/0R00/0
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangKO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeDecision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoSubmission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.KO/TKO
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Petrino · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Steven AsplundDecision
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Thomas PetersenKO/TKO
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Austen LaneSubmission
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L · KO · R3
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