UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
50%
Smith
50%
Petrino
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 50% vs Petrino at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Petrino has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Petrino
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
+77"
37
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Petrino
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
57.7
50.7
Performance Avg
55.0
50
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
71
Smith
Petrino
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
0
Body
4
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Smith
Petrino
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Petrino
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
9/16 fights
Smith
Petrino
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
Smith
Petrino
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
57%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Petrino
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
SmithPetrino
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedPetrino
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (64% of attacks) — Petrino absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Petrino targets the head (40% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Petrino
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Petrino · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
Petrino · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Steven AsplundRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Sub · R1
Austen LaneRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Dustin JacobyRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05