UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
London, United Kingdom
22 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
54%
Duncan
46%
Ashmouz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Chris
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
15 – 3
5'10"71" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Yanal
Yanal Ashmouz
"Red Fox"
8 – 2
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Duncan

This is a genuine toss-up — Duncan at 54% vs Ashmouz at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Duncan throws more volume but Ashmouz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Duncan
Ashmouz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"+
Reach
69"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Duncan
Ashmouz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
52.1
53.2
Performance Avg
45.5
39
Quality of Victory
43
89
Momentum Score
58
Duncan
Ashmouz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
5
9
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
37Distance12
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Duncan
Ashmouz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Duncan
Ashmouz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Duncan
Ashmouz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
58
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Duncan
Ashmouz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Duncan
Ashmouz
Striking1.5 / 6.0Volume5.5 / 5.0Grappling5.2 / 1.2Wrestling3.6 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Duncan
Strike Zones
Ashmouz
Duncan
Attacking
31HEAD9BODY0LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY4LEGS12 absorbed
Ashmouz
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY4LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD9BODY0LEGS40 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Duncan targets the head (78% of attacks) — Ashmouz absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Ashmouz targets the head (42% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Duncan
RND
Ashmouz
0/0R00/0

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.4W3.6L5.0W5.2W5.1W6.5W2.9L2023-032024-022025-032025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Ashmouz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.5
0106.7W6.8L4.8W7.6L2023-032023-072024-092025-06
WinLossTrend

Duncan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

Ashmouz · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Quillan SalkilldRating 7.6
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Trevor PeekRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
W · KO · R1
Sam PattersonRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Chris Duncan · Yanal Ashmouz
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