UFC 73: Stacked
Sacramento, USA
7 Jul 2007
Lightweight
VS
83%
Gurgel
17%
Saraiva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JG
Jorge Gurgel
14 – 10
5'7"69" reachOrthodox49 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 13
DS
Diego Saraiva
"The Octopus"
22 – 20
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox5'6"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gurgel

Gurgel is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gurgel has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Gurgel throws more volume but Saraiva connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Gurgel
Saraiva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
49
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gurgel
Saraiva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.5
2.6
32.1
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Gurgel
Saraiva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.4
28%
Strike Accuracy
30%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
10
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance9
1Clinch0
3Ground2
Gurgel
Saraiva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gurgel
Saraiva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/42 fights
Gurgel
Saraiva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gurgel
Saraiva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gurgel
Saraiva
Striking0.9 / 0.0Volume8.9 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Gurgel
Strike Zones
Saraiva
Gurgel
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Saraiva
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gurgel targets the head (88% of attacks) — Saraiva absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Saraiva targets the head (91% of attacks) — Gurgel absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gurgel
RND
Saraiva
0/0R00/0

Gurgel · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.0L5.5L2006-062007-072008-032008-11
WinLossTrend

Saraiva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.5L6.0L2007-022007-072007-09
WinLossTrend

Gurgel · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R3
Cole MillerRating 4
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
John HalversonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
L · Dec · R3
Alvin RobinsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Diego SaraivaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07

Saraiva · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6
Decision
UFC 76: Knockout · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Jorge GurgelRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
L · Dec · R3
Dustin HazelettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 67: All or Nothing · 2007-02

News & Media

Jorge Gurgel · Diego Saraiva
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