UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Lightweight
VS
46%
Johnson
54%
Zellhuber
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Daniel
Daniel Zellhuber
"Golden Boy"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide26 yrsSwitch77" reach6'1"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Zellhuber

This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 46% vs Zellhuber at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Zellhuber throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Johnson
Zellhuber
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+77"
39
Age
+26
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Johnson
Zellhuber
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
42.8
42.5
Performance Avg
37.0
38
Quality of Victory
33
35
Momentum Score
55
Johnson
Zellhuber
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
39%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
10
17
Body
11
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
26Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Johnson
Zellhuber
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Zellhuber
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Johnson
Zellhuber
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
55
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Johnson
Zellhuber
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Zellhuber
Striking4.8 / 0.9Volume6.0 / 6.2Grappling1.5 / 4.3Wrestling1.1 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure4.1 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Johnson
Strike Zones
Zellhuber
Johnson
Attacking
9HEAD17BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD11BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Zellhuber
Attacking
10HEAD11BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD17BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the body (65% of attacks) — Zellhuber absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Zellhuber targets the body (48% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 48% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Zellhuber
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Zellhuber · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W6.2L5.6L3.5L2022-092023-092024-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Zellhuber · Last 5

L · KO · R2
King GreenRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Esteban RibovicsRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
W · Sub · R2
Christos GiagosRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Daniel Zellhuber
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