UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Lightweight
VS
58%
Green
42%
Camilo
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:43
Gabe
Gabe Green
"Gifted"
12 – 5
5'10"73" reachSwitch33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Matheus
Matheus Camilo
"Jaguar"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded25 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'10"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Green

This is a genuine toss-up — Green at 58% vs Camilo at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Green has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Green
Camilo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
69"
33
Age
+25
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Green
Camilo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.8
37.9
45.9
Performance Avg
35.0
43
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
46
Green
Camilo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Green
Camilo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Green
Camilo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Green
Camilo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
46
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Green
Camilo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Green
Camilo
Striking4.3 / 1.0Volume3.7 / 9.0Grappling3.5 / 2.4Wrestling2.4 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.2 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Green
Strike Zones
Camilo
Green
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Camilo
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Green targets the head (60% of attacks) — Camilo absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Camilo targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Green absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Green
RND
Camilo
0/0R00/0

Green · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0106.4L5.6W5.2W7.0L3.3L5.4W2020-052021-022022-042022-072023-052025-05
WinLossTrend

Camilo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0103.6L5.0W2025-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Green · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Matheus CamiloRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Bryan BattleRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R2
Yohan LainesseRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · 2021-02

Camilo · Last 3

Upcoming
Nazim Sadykhov
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R2
Gabe GreenRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

News & Media

Gabe Green · Matheus Camilo
← Back to fights