METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Pickett
57%
Almeida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:29
★ Official Result
Thomas AlmeidawinsKO/TKOR2 · 0:29
def. Brad Pickett · UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Almeida
→
Actual result
Almeida wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Pickett at 43% vs Almeida at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Almeida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Almeida has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PickettAlmeida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pickett
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
47
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pickett
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
18.4
36.4
Performance Avg
50.6
37
Quality of Victory
51
60
Momentum Score
59
Pickett
Almeida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
2.3
30%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Pickett
Almeida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pickett
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
Pickett
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Pickett
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pickett
Almeida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
PickettAlmeida
Strike Zones
Pickett
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedAlmeida
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pickett
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Pickett · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah FaberRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Rob FontRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · KO · R2
Albert MoralesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11