UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Pickett
57%
Almeida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:29
BP
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25 – 14
5'6"68" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
TA
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
22 – 5
Knockout Artist4-fight slide34 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'7"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almeida

This is a genuine toss-up — Pickett at 43% vs Almeida at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Almeida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Almeida has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pickett
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
47
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pickett
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
18.4
36.4
Performance Avg
50.6
37
Quality of Victory
51
60
Momentum Score
59
Pickett
Almeida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.3
30%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Pickett
Almeida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pickett
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
Pickett
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Pickett
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pickett
Almeida
Striking2.7 / 9.0Volume5.5 / 2.6Grappling3.0 / 0.5Wrestling2.1 / 0.3Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 7.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
Pickett
Strike Zones
Almeida
Pickett
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Almeida
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pickett
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pickett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0101.5L5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W2.8L4.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.8L2011-112013-042014-112016-122017-03
WinLossTrend

Almeida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W2.6L5.2W5.5L4.0L6.0L5.5L2014-112015-112017-072021-03
WinLossTrend

Pickett · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah FaberRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07

Almeida · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Rob FontRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · KO · R2
Albert MoralesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11

News & Media

Brad Pickett · Thomas Almeida
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