UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Welterweight
VS
60%
Burkman
40%
Petz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JB
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
28 – 16
5'10"72" reachOrthodox46 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
FP
Forrest Petz
"The Meat Cleaver"
26 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Burkman

Burkman holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Petz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Burkman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Burkman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Burkman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Petz has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Burkman
Petz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
46+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burkman
Petz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
9.7
34.7
Performance Avg
26.4
36
Quality of Victory
25
80
Momentum Score
30
Burkman
Petz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
26%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
16
3
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance17
0Clinch3
3Ground1
Burkman
Petz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burkman
Petz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/44 fights
Chin rating based on
7/36 fights
Burkman
Petz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
30
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Burkman
Petz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burkman
Petz
Striking2.3 / 0.6Volume6.0 / 8.6Grappling2.9 / 2.4Wrestling2.0 / 1.7Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 0.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.9
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
Burkman
Strike Zones
Petz
Burkman
Attacking
16HEAD3BODY3LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Petz
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD3BODY3LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burkman targets the head (73% of attacks) — Petz absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Petz targets the head (76% of attacks) — Burkman absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burkman
RND
Petz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Burkman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.8L5.5L4.0L4.0L4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L2.7L1.5L2005-112007-052015-052017-032018-02
WinLossTrend

Petz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L2006-082007-042007-102010-09
WinLossTrend

Burkman · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
L · Sub · R1
Michel PrazeresRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Zak OttowRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05

Petz · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Brian FosterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · 2010-09
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RobertsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
L · Dec · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Luigi FioravantiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06
L · Dec · R3
Kuniyoshi HironakaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04

News & Media

Joshua Burkman · Forrest Petz
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