UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
15 Feb 2014
Middleweight
VS
44%
Machida
56%
Mousasi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
GM
Gegard Mousasi
42 – 6
Striker5-fight win streak40 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mousasi

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 44% vs Mousasi at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Mousasi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mousasi has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Mousasi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Mousasi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
23.5
53.8
Performance Avg
59.2
45
Quality of Victory
49
78
Momentum Score
100
Machida
Mousasi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Machida
Mousasi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Mousasi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
12/48 fights
Machida
Mousasi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Machida
Mousasi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Mousasi
Striking5.7 / 7.1Volume5.3 / 4.2Grappling1.7 / 1.7Wrestling1.2 / 1.2Submission0.6 / 1.1Pressure5.5 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Machida
Strike Zones
Mousasi
Machida
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Mousasi
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (57% of attacks) — Mousasi absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Mousasi targets the head (80% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Mousasi
0/0R00/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Mousasi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.1W2013-042014-092015-092016-102017-04
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Mousasi · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Chris WeidmanRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Gegard Mousasi
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