UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Lightweight
VS
54%
Dawson
46%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Grant
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24 – 3
5'10"72" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Diego
Diego Ferreira
19 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dawson

This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 54% vs Ferreira at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Dawson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dawson
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
32+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
55.1
57.5
Performance Avg
50.7
39
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
87
Dawson
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
11
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance10
1Clinch0
8Ground3
Dawson
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dawson
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Dawson
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
87
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Dawson
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dawson
Ferreira
Striking3.4 / 6.2Volume5.0 / 3.6Grappling4.3 / 2.3Wrestling3.0 / 1.6Submission4.2 / 2.0Pressure6.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Dawson
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Dawson
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Ferreira
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (79% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (85% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dawson
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0

Dawson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.7W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.6W5.9W5.7W4.5W2.2L5.2W6.0W5.5W3.6L6.1W2019-032021-032023-102025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.2W6.5L2.8L4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W5.2W6.5L2.8L3.8L5.3W6.1W7.0L3.6L2014-062018-022021-022025-012025-09
WinLossTrend

Dawson · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Ferreira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Grant Dawson · Diego Ferreira
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