METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Lightweight
VS
54%
Dawson
46%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Grant DawsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Diego Ferreira · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dawson
→
Actual result
Dawson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 54% vs Ferreira at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Dawson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DawsonFerreira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dawson
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
32+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
55.1
57.5
Performance Avg
50.7
39
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
87
Dawson
Ferreira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
11
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance10
1Clinch0
8Ground3
Dawson
Ferreira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dawson
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Dawson
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
87
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Dawson
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
DawsonFerreira
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (79% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (85% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Ferreira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
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