UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Milwaukee, USA
14 Aug 2011
Welterweight
VS
46%
Hardy
54%
Lytle
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:16
DH
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25 – 10
6'0"74" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 15
CL
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
31 – 18
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lytle

This is a genuine toss-up — Hardy at 46% vs Lytle at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lytle has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hardy's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hardy
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
68"
44+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hardy
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
18.3
46.0
Performance Avg
46.2
37
Quality of Victory
44
38
Momentum Score
56
Hardy
Lytle
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
34%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
17
1
Body
16
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance31
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Hardy
Lytle
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hardy
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
80
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Hardy
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
56
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Hardy
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hardy
Lytle
Striking4.5 / 2.0Volume6.5 / 3.4Grappling1.6 / 5.5Wrestling1.1 / 3.9Submission0.0 / 6.0Pressure4.1 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Hardy
Strike Zones
Lytle
Hardy
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD16BODY1LEGS34 absorbed
Lytle
Attacking
17HEAD16BODY1LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the head (85% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the head (50% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hardy
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.5L4.0L5.0W4.5W2008-102009-112011-032012-09
WinLossTrend

Lytle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.8L5.8L5.2W5.2W5.5L4.8L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.6W4.5W5.5L5.5W2000-112005-102008-022010-022011-08
WinLossTrend

Hardy · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R3
Chris LytleRating 4
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Carlos ConditRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10

Lytle · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterRating 5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02

News & Media

Dan Hardy · Chris Lytle
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